Which Of The Following Is True Regarding The Greenhouse Effect And Climate Change?

• Systematic Map Protocol
• Open Admission
• Published: 11 September 2020

What are the effects of climate variability and change on ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migration in North America? A systematic map protocol

• Sarah R. Weiskopf^ane,
• Laura Thompson¹ &
• Amanda R. Hardy²

Ecology Evidence book ix, Article number:21 (2020) Cite this article

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Abstruse

Background

Climate is an of import driver of ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migratory behaviors, and can affect the growth, evolution, fecundity, dispersal, and demographic trends of populations. Changes in temperature and precipitation, and resulting shifts in plant phenology, wintertime severity, drought and wildfire conditions, invasive species distribution and abundance, predation, and affliction have the potential to directly or indirectly affect ungulates. However, ungulate responses to climate variability and change are non uniform and vary by species and geography. Here, we present a systematic map protocol aiming to draw the abundance and distribution of evidence on the furnishings of climate variability and alter on ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migration in North America. This map will help to identify noesis gaps and clusters of prove, and can exist used to inform future research directions and adaptive management strategies.

Methods

We volition catalogue testify on how climate variability and change affect the life-histories, population dynamics, and migration patterns of the xv ungulate species native to North America. Nosotros volition search both academic and grey literature, using academic journal databases and specialist websites. Articles will be screened for inclusion at the title/abstract and full-text levels, and data volition exist extracted from articles that pass the total-text review. These data will be summarized quantitatively, visually, and with a narrative review to describe the distribution and abundance of evidence on the effects of climate variability and change on ungulates in Due north America.

Background

Native ungulate species occupy a diversity of habitats beyond North America, from Canada's high chill to the deserts of Mexico [one]. Through their herbivory, wild ungulates play an of import ecological role, regulating processes such equally food cycling in temperate forests [two] and plant productivity and habitat heterogeneity in grasslands [3, 4]. Ungulates are also economically and culturally important in N America, providing recreational and subsistence hunting opportunities and non-consumptive, aesthetic values. For example, in 2016, 8.i million people hunted deer (Odocoileus spp.) in the U.s.a., and 0.7 million hunted elk (Cervus canadensis) [five]. However, the management of sustainable and robust ungulate populations in North America is challenged past a number of anthropogenic and environmental threats that have the potential to impact individuals, populations, and the ability of ungulates to motion beyond the mural [vi]. Changes in habitat [7], climate conditions [8, 9], and predator communities [8] are of increasing concern to ungulate managers [10]. Of these, an improved understanding of the effects of changing climate conditions has been highlighted every bit a fundamental data need [11,12,13]. Climatic variation occurs across multiple spatial and temporal scales, and understanding the impacts of both short- and long-term changes will provide valuable information to wild fauna and country managers. Climate is an important driver of ungulate life-history characteristics, population dynamics, and migratory behaviors and changes in climate can directly or indirectly affect the growth, development, fecundity, dispersal, demographic trends, and long-term viability of populations [9, 13] also every bit the timing and locations of migratory movements [14, 15]. Here, we use the term "climate variability" to refer to interannual or interdecadal fluctuations in temperature and precipitation, and the term "climate modify" to refer to persistent, multidecadal deviations from long-term averages [sixteen].

Understanding the direct and indirect effects of climate variability and change on ungulates will be an important consideration for effective ungulate direction and conservation in North America [13, 17], and a number of studies have begun to document these impacts. Direct impacts can include changes in the costs of thermoregulation or locomotion [18], while indirect impacts tin can include shifts in forage quality and quantity [8]. Studies accept documented, for example, that winter temperatures can directly affect juvenile survival [nineteen] and have population-level effects. For example, farthermost wintertime temperatures, increased snowfall, and more frequent winter storms led to elk population reductions in Canada [20]. Atmospheric precipitation and temperature, through their furnishings on establish production and nutritional quality, can also directly and indirectly affect ungulate life-history characteristics [21,22,23]. In Idaho, a longer fall growing season increased mule deer (O. hemionus) fawn overwinter survival [24], while summertime drought increased bloodshed among Sonoran pronghorn (Antilocapra americana sonoriensis) in New Mexico [25].

The effects of changes in the timing of bound green-up and winter severity, two key drivers of ungulate migration in North America, have also been documented. Elk in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem delayed divergence from wintertime range habitat when spring greenish-upwards occurred after [15], mule deer in the Sierra Nevada migrated earlier in years with earlier green-up and low snow depth [14], and mule deer in Wyoming altered their use of stopover sites based on changes in plant phenology [26]. Lastly, at that place have been efforts to project the potential future impacts of climate change on ungulates. For case, studies have modeled the effects of climate change on population growth of pronghorn [27], mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus) [28], and desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis nelsoni) [29] in the western U.S.

The response of ungulates to climate variability and change is not uniform and is likely mediated by local processes and species-specific traits [17], and the show is not equally distributed among species and geographies. Synthesizing the existing scientific discipline on this topic will facilitate the identification of the range of climate-related impacts beyond ungulate species, populations, and geographies, and highlight cognition gaps and clusters that tin support management conclusion-making. Here, we propose a systematic map of evidence relating to the effects of climate variability and change on ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migration in N America. This review aims to bolster our agreement of how changes in climate weather condition, whether occurring over curt or long timescales, take already or could potentially bear upon ungulates. This goal will be accomplished by cataloguing the evidence on how changes in climate and climate-related variables affect ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migration across the continent.

Stakeholder engagement

We began our process of identifying stakeholder needs by reviewing a series of state wildlife management bureau plans that outline key threats and priority enquiry areas related to ungulate management. These plans were adult by 11 western U.S. states in 2018, following the signing of Secretarial Order 3362,"Improving Habitat Quality in Western Big-Game Wintertime Range and Migration Corridors". This order, which focuses on elk, mule deer, and pronghorn in eleven states, directs the U.S. Section of the Interior'south land management bureaus to piece of work in partnership with state wildlife agencies to improve ungulate wintertime range and migration corridor habitats. As role of this effort, each participating state developed a State Activity Plan outlining major threats and priorities related to ungulate migration corridors and winter range habitat. In addition to commonly-cited challenges such every bit wildlife-vehicle collisions and physical barriers to movement such as fences, many plans listed drought, wildfire, illness, and habitat conversion due to the spread of invasive species as key threats to ungulates, and outlined a clear need for data that will enhance the understanding and protection of ungulate migration and use of range habitat.

In addition, we contacted big game and habitat managers from several state wild fauna direction agencies to better understand their priorities and information needs related to ungulate management. Equally role of these discussions, we inquired well-nigh their current understanding of how climate variability and change affect ungulates, and whether additional information on this topic would back up management planning. Nosotros also spoke to federal scientists to place relevant ongoing science activities, and to receive input on the science needs related to ungulates and climate change. This stakeholder input contributed to the initial conceptualization of this study and helped ascertain the scope of the systematic map.

Objective of the review

This systematic map will focus on the 15 ungulate species of the Gild Artiodactyla native to North America [11]. We will describe the abundance and distribution of evidence relating to the impacts of climate variability and change on the life-history characteristics, population dynamics, and migratory behaviors of these species by gathering evidence on the topic from across the continent. Offset, we volition map the evidence on the effects of seasonal, interannual, and interdecadal changes in temperature and precipitation (hereafter referred to as "directly climate variables") and their derivatives, such every bit drought, wintertime severity, and snow depth, on ungulate ecology. Changes in direct climate variables can also affect ungulates via changes in constitute phenology [xv, 30], wildfire [17, 31], invasive species [17], disease [32], and predation [twenty]. Therefore, we will depict the evidence on how changes in these "secondary variables" affect ungulates in cases where they are linked to changes in direct climate variables. We will too identify studies that project how time to come changes in climate could potentially affect ungulates in Due north America. Together, these tiers of evidence volition enable the identification of knowledge gaps and clusters on the topic of ungulates, climate variability, and climate change to inform future principal research directions and targeted systematic reviews.

The primary question for this systematic map is as follows: What evidence exists on the effects of climate variability and change on ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migration in North America?

Our research question can be broken down into the following key elements, based on the PECO (Population, Exposure, Comparator, Outcome) question framework:

Population

All subspecies and populations of wild pronghorn, elk, mule deer, moose (Alces alces), bighorn sheep, white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), American bison (Bison bison), mountain goat, Dall sheep (Ovis dalli), muskox (Ovibos moschatus), caribou (Rangifer tarandus), collared peccaries (Pecari tajacu), white-lipped peccaries (Tayassu pecari), brown brocket deer (Mazama gouazoupira), and red brocket deer (M. americana) in the U.South., Canada, or United mexican states. The state of Hawai'i, the U.Southward. territories of Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, and American Samoa, and the Canadian province of Prince Edward Island volition exist excluded from the review. The 15 ungulate species are either not nowadays on these islands or were introduced and are non-native [33].

Exposure

Temporal changes in straight climate variables (i.e. temperature, precipitation) and their derivatives (e.1000. snow, wintertime severity, drought); temporal, climate-related changes in secondary variables (i.eastward. plant phenology, wildfire, invasive species, disease, predation).

Comparator

A comparison of at to the lowest degree 2 different time points, over which in that location is a quantified, inferred, or projected alter in a direct climate or secondary variable.

Upshot

Event on individual life-history characteristics; population dynamics; migratory beliefs; spatial location or quality of migration corridor, winter range, or summer range habitat.

Methods

The review will follow the Collaboration for Ecology Bear witness Guidelines and Standards for Evidence Synthesis in Environmental Direction [34], and conform to the ROSES reporting standards [35] (Additional file i).

Searching for articles

Nosotros volition bear this review using Web of Science and Scopus, both of which are fabricated available to the authors via the U.S. Geological Survey's subscriptions with the services. In Spider web of Science, the Science Commendation Alphabetize Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), function of the Web of Science Core Collection, will be searched. SCI-EXPANDED (1985-nowadays) is the Cadre Collection citation index available to the authors via the U.South. Geological Survey. The search will be run based on the "topic" field, which includes commodity titles, abstracts, keywords, and "KeyWords Plus" (automatically generated terms pulled from the titles of cited articles). Our subscription service does non enable us to admission articles published prior to 1985, so the timespan "all years (1985–2020)" volition exist selected. In Scopus, article titles, abstracts, and keywords will exist searched using the search string outlined below, and all years of data will be searched. All searches volition be conducted in English language, and merely English-linguistic communication publications will be included in the review since this is the primary language of the reviewers. Search results will be exported into both an Excel spreadsheet and a reference management software, and duplicates will be removed.

Search terms

The final Boolean search string is structured to capture manufactures that pertain to the population variables and exposure to direct climate variables (and their derivatives) or to climate-related changes in secondary variables. The scientific and common names of each ungulate species were included every bit search terms. The terms "climat*" and "global warming" were included to capture articles specifically focused on the impacts of climate variability and alter on ungulates. The term "weather" was as well included, both because climate tin can be defined as the average conditions in a location, and because extreme climate events such as severe icing or rut waves tin can also be characterized equally extreme weather events and are relevant to this review [sixteen]. Terms for the direct climate variables (east.g. temperature, precipitation), as well every bit relevant derivatives, were besides added. These terms include snow, rain, ice, drought, heat, cold, freez*, and winter severity. While numerous boosted derivatives of temperature and precipitation exist, such as daily snowfall, total rainfall, or average daily temperature, these variables will exist captured by the existing terms in the search string and do non need to exist individually added equally terms.

We also included ane of the secondary variables, phenology, as a search term. Establish phenology is a known driver of ungulate migration in N America [36, 37] and is inherently linked to climate, in particular to temperature [38, 39]. Due to this inherent link, our direct climate variable terms may not be present in the title or abstract of relevant articles addressing ungulates and found phenology, and equally such could exist missed by our search string if phenology were not included every bit a term. Nosotros did not include the additional secondary variables equally search terms, based on the results of the scoping exercises outlined in the following section.

The final search string, to be used in Spider web of Scientific discipline and Scopus, is every bit follows (in a Web of Scientific discipline format):

TS =(("mule deer" OR "black-tailed deer" OR "Odocoileus hemionus" OR "white-tailed deer" OR "whitetail*" OR "Odocoileus virginianus" OR "elk" OR "wapiti" OR "Cervus canadensis" OR "pronghorn" OR "antelope" OR "Antilocapra americana" OR "bighorn sheep" OR "mountain sheep" OR "Ovis canadensis" OR "moose" OR "Alces a*" OR "bison" OR "Bison bison" OR "Dall sheep" OR "Dall'south sheep" OR "thinhorn sheep" OR "Ovis dalli" OR "mountain goat" OR "Oreamnos americanus" OR "muskox*" OR "musk-ox*" OR "musk ox*" OR "Ovibos moschatus" OR "caribou" OR "Rangifer tarandus" OR "collared peccar*" OR "javelina*" OR "musk hog*" OR "musk-sus scrofa*" OR "Pecari tajacu" OR "white-lipped peccar*" OR "Tayassu pecari" OR "brocket*" OR "brown brocket*" OR "Mazama gouazoupira" OR "cherry-red brocket*" OR "Mazama americana") AND ("climat*" OR "global warming" OR "weather condition" OR "temperature" OR "precipitation" OR "snow*" OR "rain*" OR "ice" OR "icing" OR "drought" OR "heat" OR "cold" OR "freez*" OR "wintertime severity" OR "phenology")).

Assessing retrieval performance

With the exception of phenology, the remaining secondary variables – wildfire, invasives, disease, and predation – were not included as search terms. For the secondary variables, we are concerned just with studies that attribute changes in a secondary variable (east.g. increased affliction manual) to a directly climate variable (e.k. temperature), and examine the effects on ungulates (e.g. mortality). The structure of our concluding search cord inherently captures such manufactures, as the string is designed to return any article that uses a population term and a direct climate variable term. For example, an commodity describing the impacts of a temperature-driven modify in disease transmission on mule deer would be captured past the final search string, due to the presence of the terms "mule deer" and "temperature".

To exam this assumption, we ran divide searches that included all population variables, straight climate variables, and each of the four remaining secondary variables, one at a time (Additional file 2). Nosotros screened the titles and abstracts of the start 100 articles returned by each search, sorted by relevance in Web of Scientific discipline, and identified whatever relevant articles based on our written report eligibility criteria (Table i). We then checked if these articles were returned past Web of Science when our final search string was run. The overall operation against the exam list was 100% for each variable tested, demonstrating that relevant articles on these topics will be captured by our search string, and these variables do not need to be included as search terms.

Tabular array 1 Study eligibility criteria

Full size table

The search string was also tested for overall sensitivity by identifying a set of xxx articles known to exist relevant to the authors (Additional file 3), and checking if these articles were returned by Web of Science and Scopus. The overall operation against the test listing was 100% for Web of Science and 93% for Scopus.

Additional search methods

Grey literature

Greyness literature volition be identified through a combination of a Scopus search and hand-searches of relevant organizational websites. We are using Scopus to identify both bookish and grey literature and therefore volition employ the same search string as in Web of Science. No additional search strings will be used to identify grey literature in Scopus. In improver to Scopus, the website of each country, provincial, and territorial wildlife management agency in Canada and the U.Due south. will exist searched to locate bachelor technical reports on our focal species (Additional file four). Because our searches will be English-language only, we will non search the websites of Mexican wildlife management agencies equally function of our grey literature search. While this may innovate geographical bias in our grey literature search results, the review team does non accept the resources needed to deport Spanish-language searches and to translate these manufactures.

If available, the built-in search functions of the organization websites will be used and separate searches will be run for each relevant ungulate species. For example, the website for Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks will exist searched using the terms "bighorn sheep", "bison", "caribou", "elk", "moose", "mountain goat", "mule deer", "pronghorn", and "white-tailed deer", as each of these species is currently or has historically been establish in the country. The terms used to search each website will be recorded. The websites volition likewise be hand-searched to locate pages containing agency reports and publications. Articles acquired during this process will be downloaded and included in the listing of articles subject to the full-text review.

Review articles

Relevant review articles will not exist accepted directly into the review. Instead, nosotros will examine the primary sources cited in review articles and ensure that whatever advisable sources are captured and subjected to the title and abstract review.

Article screening and study eligibility criteria

A ii-stage screening process will exist implemented to identify relevant articles from the deduplicated set of search results. The first stage will involve a review of the commodity titles and abstracts. This stage will be completed using the open access web-based platform Colandr, a machine-learning tool that allows for iterative sorting of relevant and irrelevant manufactures [forty]. All articles accounted relevant during this phase will and then be subjected to a full-text review. In cases of uncertainty, the reviewers will include the paper. Information will be coded and extracted from all manufactures accounted relevant during the full-text review stage. At each stage, the number of excluded articles, and the reason for exclusion, will be documented. A listing of articles excluded during the full-text review, with reasons for exclusion, will be provided every bit an additional file.

At the onset of the championship and abstract review phase, each reviewer will appraise the eligibility of a random subset of 100 manufactures and the level of understanding, or interrater reliability, will be tested using the Fleiss Kappa statistic [41]. A kappa result of ≥ 0.61 indicates a substantial level of understanding between reviewers [42] and will be considered acceptable. In cases where the kappa event is less than 0.61, the reviewers will hash out any differences to ensure that screening criteria are being consistently applied. Consistency checking will be repeated until a kappa result of 0.61 is achieved. If needed, the definitions of the eligibility criteria (Table 1) will exist updated to improve consistency amid reviewers. The remaining articles will exist divided for review amongst all just one co-author. The remaining co-writer will serve as a second screener on all articles. Any inconsistencies among screeners, or questions about whether an article meets screening criteria, will be reviewed betwixt co-authors. Reviewers that have authored an article under consideration will be recused from decisions regarding the eligibility of the article.

Study validity cess

A formal study validity cess will non be carried out as part of this endeavour.

Information coding strategy

During the full-text review process, information on each relevant article volition exist extracted and entered into an Excel spreadsheet database. In add-on to documenting basic bibliographic information for each article, we will record information on the species and population studied, the geographic location of the study, and the temporal scale over which the assay was completed. We volition document any relevant direct climate or secondary variables to which the study population was exposed, and the effect variables that were analyzed. If information is missing or unclear in an commodity, we will email the authors to request the additional information. If the authors do not reply, or do not provide clarification, the commodity will be excluded from the analysis. Information extracted will include:

• Bibliographic data

  • Study ID (unique numeric ID assigned to each commodity)

  • Coder ID (unique ID assigned to each reviewer)

  • Citation information

  • Literature type (academic, grey)

• Study pattern

• Temporal scale

  • Study get-go and finish dates

  • Study duration

• Population information

  • Study location (country, state/province, site proper noun and location, habitat type, climate zone)

  • Species and subspecies

  • Demographic information (historic period and sex activity class)

• Exposure variables

  • Direct climate variables (temperature, precipitation)

  • Direct climate variable derivatives

  • Secondary variables (found phenology, wildfire, invasive species, illness, predation)

• Comparator (blazon, temporal calibration)

• Outcome components and subcomponents measured

  • Private life-history characteristics

    • Subcomponents: individual growth (eastward.thousand. torso mass, nutritional condition), reproduction

  • Population dynamics

    • Subcomponents: abundance, population growth, long-term viability, survival, distribution, structure, density, productivity, recruitment

  • Migration

    • Subcomponents: behavior and motion patterns; range, corridor, and stopover habitat location and quality

We will use several mechanisms to ensure repeatability and consistency in data coding. Kickoff, each data field will take a clear definition of the data intended for that field and the required format for data entry. Wherever possible, drop-downwardly lists will be used to improve consistency in data entry. Additionally, at the onset of the data entry stage, each team member will independently review and enter data for the aforementioned 10 articles. Any differences in data entry will exist discussed and reconciled, and the database fields volition be updated if needed. Lastly, a second reviewer will independently review and enter data for a subset of ten% of all articles that pass the title and abstract phase. Whatever inconsistencies in the extracted information will be discussed and reconciled, and the extraction methodology will exist refined if needed.

Study mapping and presentation

The final systematic map will be synthesized in a narrative review. The synthesis will include summary tables and figures of the study characteristics and select variables will be cantankerous-tabulated in a series of heat maps [eastward.g. [43]]. These heat maps will brandish the distribution and frequency of occurrences of evidence on ungulate exposure to changes in direct climate and secondary variables by population (i.e. species) and result (i.due east. life-history characteristics vs. population dynamics vs. migration). An evidence atlas showing the spatial location of each study containing discrete location information will too be produced.

Together, the narrative, tables, and figures will serve as a mechanism for recognizing knowledge gaps and noesis clusters on the effects of climate variability and change on ungulates in Northward America. Identified knowledge gaps may represent topics for future chief research, while knowledge clusters may correspond areas ripe for targeted systematic reviews. The full database containing the information extracted from each written report will be made available for download.

Availability of data and materials

No datasets were generated or analyzed during the preparation of the protocol. All information that will be used for the review will be made freely available upon the publication of the review.

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Acknowledgements

We thank B. Miller for providing feedback on this manuscript.

Funding

This work is funded by the U.Southward. Geological Survey National Climate Accommodation Science Heart. Any use of trade, house, or production names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.Southward. Government.

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Affiliations

1. National Climate Adaptation Science Eye, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, U.s.a.

   Katherine C. Malpeli, Sarah R. Weiskopf & Laura Thompson

2. National Park Service, Biological Resource Partitioning & Climatic change Response Plan, Washington, DC, United states of america

   Amanda R. Hardy

Contributions

KM conceived of the original research question, wrote the commencement typhoon of this paper, and led the enquiry team. All authors contributed to refining the research question and report blueprint and edited subsequent drafts. All authors read and approved the concluding manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Katherine C. Malpeli.

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Supplementary information

Additional file 2.

Scoping exercises completed to decide inclusion/exclusion of secondary variable terms in terminal search string.

Additional file iii.

Results of the sensitivity testing of the final search string and the listing of articles used to test the sensitivity of the search string.

Additional file 4.

Listing of management agency websites to be manus-searched for greyness literature.

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Malpeli, K.C., Weiskopf, S.R., Thompson, L. et al. What are the effects of climate variability and change on ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migration in N America? A systematic map protocol. Environ Evid 9, 21 (2020). https://doi.org/ten.1186/s13750-020-00204-westward

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• Received: 06 May 2020

• Accepted: 31 August 2020

• Published: 11 September 2020

• DOI : https://doi.org/10.1186/s13750-020-00204-w

Keywords

• Global modify
• Climate impacts
• Weather
• Ungulate management
• Ungulate environmental

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